The cricket betting odds indicate the possible return and, when read in reverse, show the probability that the bookmaker assigns to an outcome. With decimal odds this is simply a matter of basic arithmetic, and three figures are relevant to the basis of this guide: the total return, the implied probability and the margin. Below each of these is calculated using a stake of PKR 1,000 at odds of 1.90, and they are then used in the subsequent sections to demonstrate how the prices are constructed and why they change. It should be noted that the prices in all the examples are illustrative and not the current 1xBet odds.
| Concept | Formula | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Total return | Stake × odds | PKR 1,000 × 1.90 = PKR 1,900 (stake included) |
| Implied probability | 1 ÷ odds × 100 | 1 ÷ 1.90 × 100 = 52.6% |
| Margin on a two-way market | Sum of implied probabilities − 100% | 1.90 / 1.90 → 105.3% − 100% = 5.3% |
How Cricket Odds Work
The way cricket odds work can be explained by referring to one number for each possible outcome. The decimal system is the format most frequently used by people in Pakistan and Sri Lanka, and it is the one employed in this guide. If the odds are 2.50, then each PKR 1 that is staked will return PKR 2.50 if the bet wins, including the original stake. Decimal odds are always greater than 1.00, and the higher the number, the less likely the bookmaker considers that outcome to be.
The odds also indicate how the two sides stack up; the favourite has the lower odds since the bookmaker considers that side more likely to win, while the underdog has the higher odds because the win is less likely but brings a higher return for each rupee staked.
The number of possible results varies according to the format. In the case of a Test match, a draw is possible if the allotted time runs out without a winner, so the Match Result market for this format usually has three outcomes: a home team win, a draw and an away team win. On the other hand, limited-overs formats such as T20 and ODI are designed to have a winner, and therefore their match winner markets generally have two outcomes, a tied match being rare. To find out how bets are settled in the event that the scores end in a tie, you should check the market rules.
To illustrate this, consider a hypothetical example: the home team win at 2.20, a draw at 3.40, and an away win at 3.80. The odds with the lowest figure indicate that the home team is the favourite, and the chance of a draw is greater than that of an away win. If a bet of PKR 1,000 is placed on a draw, it would yield a return of PKR 3,400 if the match ends in a draw.
Bookmaker Margin: A Worked Example on Two Markets
Margin is the bookmaker's built-in profit margin and it can be calculated from any set of odds. To do this, convert each price into an implied probability, add up the results and then take off 100%. The two examples below are purely hypothetical. The prices given are for illustrative purposes and are not the current 1xBet odds.
Example 1: T20 match winner (two outcomes)
| Outcome | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Team A | 1.85 | 1 ÷ 1.85 = 54.05% |
| Team B | 1.95 | 1 ÷ 1.95 = 51.28% |
| Total | – | 105.33% |
The total amounts to 105.33%, which means that the margin is 105.33% minus 100%, or 5.33%.
Example 2: Test match result (three outcomes)
| Outcome | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.40 | 1 ÷ 2.40 = 41.67% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 1 ÷ 3.60 = 27.78% |
| Away win | 3.10 | 1 ÷ 3.10 = 32.26% |
| Total | – | 101.70% |
The total amounts to 101.70 per cent (when the values are not rounded), so the margin is 101.70 per cent minus 100 per cent, which equals 1.70 per cent. This approach applies to any number of possible outcomes; it is merely the number of rows that changes.
When the prices are fair, the implied probabilities will total exactly 100 per cent; any amount above that is the margin and functions as a fee which is built into each price. Over a number of bets, a bettor whose selections are no better than the market's own prices will lose a proportion equal to the margin — about PKR 5 out of every PKR 100 in Example 1 and less than PKR 2 in Example 2. It is possible for an individual bet to win, but it is the margin that you have to contend with over the course of a season of betting. The lower the margin, the greater the amount of each stake that is returned on average, so it is important to assess it before comparing the prices.
How Margins Differ by Tournament and Market
In the betting industry the margins are different for various markets. For major events such as those organised by the ICC, the matches between Pakistan and Sri Lanka and those in the PSL, margins are generally lower, this being mainly due to the large amount of betting on them and the close price competition. On the other hand player specials, minor domestic leagues and in-play props have higher margins since there is less information available and less money available to keep the prices stable.
It is a general pattern, not a specific fact relating to 1xBet. Since there is no reliable public table showing 1xBet's margins for each league, any figure quoted without an explanation of how it was obtained should be treated with care. You can work out the figure for yourself using the method described in the example above. To do so, compare three matches.
- Choose three matches, one from each level, for example an international match, a PSL match and a smaller domestic match.
- For each match, note the price at which it is traded together with the time of the check.
- Take each price and convert it into an implied probability by dividing one by the odds, then add up the results.
- To get the margin for each match, subtract 100%, and then carry out the comparison of the three.
- It can be repeated on a different day since the prices and margins may change as the match draws near.
Since three matches make up only a small sample, the results should be regarded as a rough guide and not as a ranking.
Why Pre-Match Cricket Odds Move
The change in odds in cricket is due to new information and new money arriving prior to the first ball, and five factors are responsible for the majority of this.
- Announcements regarding the team and any injuries – when the starting eleven have been confirmed the market adjusts the price for the match, and if a main bowler or opener is missing the team's price tends to increase, whereas if a good player is returning the price tends to decrease.
- The outcome of the toss. The side that wins the toss gets to bat first, and the market reacts to the implication of this on the day. Prices tend to move slightly at this point.
- News regarding the weather and the pitch: forecasts of rain together with reports on dew affect expectations as to scoring and also influence the chances of the match being shortened.
- The value of money is that if a large number of bets are placed on one side the bookmaker may reduce the odds for that side and increase them for the other in order to balance out the risks.
- If a player withdraws late, he can adjust the prices within minutes of the news being released.
When a price decreases, it shows that the market now considers that result more likely, not that it is certain. If the odds change from 1.80 to 1.50, that is equivalent to the probability going from 55.6% to 66.7%, which represents a higher chance but by no means a certainty, since one match out of three would still be lost. Furthermore, the price you saw earlier might no longer be available, so you should check the odds on the slip before you finalise your selection.
Checking 1xBet Cricket Odds Against the Market
You don't gain much from a single price until you compare it with the rest. The following routine illustrates how 1xBet's cricket odds stack up against the broader market.
- Select one match and one market, and use the market that has the main match winner.
- Note the 1xBet rate along with the time, and record the odds for each possible outcome together with the exact time at which you checked them.
- Get price quotes from at least three other bookmakers and record the time when each check is carried out.
- For each possible outcome, add up the odds given by the other bookmakers and then divide that total by the number of them.
- Look at each outcome in turn. Is the 1xBet rate higher or lower than the average? The higher the rate, the more it pays for the same kind of bet.
- Look at the margin and use the margin method as shown in the worked example with both sets of prices to see which total is smaller.
The odds can change very rapidly at the time of the toss, which means that a gap between two checks taken ten minutes apart could be due to movement rather than representing a real difference. A single comparison only relates to one particular moment and does not imply that bookmakers are always better. The same margin calculation method applies to tennis betting odds and other two-outcome sports markets.
Betting is for adults of legal age only. Set a budget before the match starts, stick to it, and never pursue losses with bigger stakes. Betting should never be a way to make money, so treat any stake as the price of entertainment. Take regular breaks during long live sessions. If betting stops being fun, stop, talk to someone you trust, and use the self-limit or self-exclusion tools in your account.
